Climate Change Initiative

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing conservation.  Twentieth Century warming has already begun to affect wildlife by leading to dramatic shifts in geographic distributions and earlier timing of spring events, such as migrations, disrupting hibernation and breeding.

The WCS North America Program is working on-the-ground in several key regions of North America already experiencing rapid climate change, by studying impacts on species and the resulting complex ecological interactions.

The focus of our research is to develop management strategies that lessen the stress of climate change on wildlife, and to redirect conservation planning efforts to protect areas that are more resilient to such changes.

Site-based examples of our climate change work 

Polar bears:  WCS’s “Warm Waters for Cool Bears” initiative is a bold effort to save the earth’s largest terrestrial predator by following the receding sea ice habitat that may drastically shrink as a result of global warming.  Using nearly 30 years worth of daily collected satellite imagery and meteorological data, WCS landscape ecologists will create a Geographical Information Systems map that will enable conservationists to more accurately predict where sea ice — a vital habitat for polar bears and the ringed and bearded seals they prey on — will remain in the near future.  Armed with this information, WCS hopes to inform management activities such as the designation of protected areas for polar bears and their prey.

Arctic shorebirds: In arctic Alaska, the interna­tional assemblage of breeding shorebirds is initiating nesting more than a week earlier compared to a de­cade ago.  How this earlier breeding is affecting their complicated annual geographic and energetic pattern of molt, fat deposition, and southward and northward migration is unclear.  Yet it is clear that in order to accommodate an ever earlier arctic spring, these birds are arriving in feeding grounds earlier and are challenged to gain the nutrition necessary to move around the world with a disrupted calendar.  WCS scientists are following the nesting biology of shorebirds and waterfowl in arctic Alaska and are identifying key areas for conservation in this changing landscape of warmer springs and expanding energy develop­ment.

Lemmings and Arctic Food Webs:  Lemmings are nec­essary prey for a substan­tial number of arctic tundra predators including red and arctic fox, ermine, snowy owl, and rough-legged hawk.  However, healthy lemming populations appear to de­pend on having enough snow to insulate them from cold from September through May, a condition that is more difficult to fulfill as snow ar­rives later and winter melting events reduce the insulative value of the snow pack.  WCS researchers are working to experimentally investigate the role of snow cover in lemming survival and breeding, in addition to docu­menting the shifting ranges of arctic and red fox,  in order to protect this essential predator prey relation­ship.  In addition, WCS researchers in the arctic tundra of western North America are comparing the current timing of reproduction in birds to historic patterns, and estab­lishing a set of permanent plots in diverse vegetation commu­nities to monitor the effects of climate change. 

Woodland Caribou:  Climate change has the potential to    impact caribou habitat through increased risk of catastrophic fire in boreal forests with lichens (winter habitat), shrinking ex­tent of alpine tundra (summer habitat), more difficult snow conditions, and altered preda­tor-prey interactions. WCS is mapping the seasonal ranges of woodland caribou herds, deter­mining their selection of habitat based upon current vegetation and climate, and modeling the potential impacts of climate change on key habitats and potential shifts in caribou distribution. This in­formation will provide the scientific basis for develop­ing proactive conservation strategies that may provide caribou with some resilience to climate change.

Elk and Aspen: Changes in snow levels, snow conditions, and spring onset can have major impacts on the ecology of northern latitudes.  WCS researchers are assessing the impact of climate change and snow depth on the interaction between elk and aspen in the Yellowstone Ecosystem.  Elk are dominant herbivores in the Rocky Mountains, and their high abundance is largely responsible for the failure of aspen regeneration across much of the region.  Yet their movements and foraging are strongly affected by snow cover.  Aspen, in turn, provide critical habitat for many birds and insects.  The understanding of this multi-species interaction through experimentation and modeling will provide managers the ability to limit elk abundance to levels that will allow aspen to regenerate amidst a changing and warming world.

Wolverines: Initiated in 2001, WCS’s Greater Yellowstone Wolverine Project gathers detailed information on wolverine populations, preferred habitats, and corridors.  In the conterminous U.S., the southern extent of the species’ global distribution, wolverines are found exclusively in high elevation, alpine habitats where deep snow allows them to out-compete other carnivores.  Because they give birth in February and females gather food away from the natal den site, wolverines require deep snow (and often avalanche debris) for protection of young.  Wolverines are therefore dependent on a niche that is susceptible to rapid and dramatic change from global warming, and their sensitivity is exacerbated by the fact that their population size is small and their capacity for reproduction is limited. WCS researchers are attempting to understand the potential impacts of climate change on wolverines and develop strategies for addressing those impacts.

Adirondack Boreal Birds: One of the most distinctive habitat types in the Adirondack Park is the lowland boreal.  Characterized by large open peatlands, river corridors, and forested wetlands, these areas provide habitat for a unique suite of birds that are at the south­ern extent of their range.  Since 2003, WCS has been assessing the status and distribution of a suite of boreal birds across the Park.  Climate change represents the primary threat to this habitat type and has the poten­tial to greatly impact the distribution of these species in both high and low elevation boreal habitats.  Our ongoing work provides needed baseline information on overall distribution, abundance, and population trends and will help us work to mitigate the negative impacts of climate on these birds.

Corridor Conservation: Conservation planning strat­egies need to consider how climate change will alter ecosystem processes and cause wildlife and plant dis­tributions to shift across the landscape.  By anticipating ecosystem and species responses to changing climate, we can design a connected network of protected areas that enable species to move across what has become a highly fragmented landscape and provide refuges for those species in the future.  WCS’s Corridor Conser­vation Initiative is working to ensure that protecting connectivity becomes a sci­entifically-sound climate change policy option by encouraging the develop­ment of relevant connectiv­ity policy based on rigorous scientific guidelines. For example, WCS Canada and the Adirondack Program are engaged in ecoregional planning for the northern Appalachian region through the Two Countries One Forest Project which identi­fies critical at-risk linkages under greatest threat from climate change and other pressures.  Specifically, WCS Canada has developed the regional Human Footprint to identify the last of the wild in this region. These ini­tiatives will help us understand what is at risk and help us to plan for and adapt to the outcomes of a changing climate.

Climate Change Conservation Planning: WCS is working to bridge the gap between science and conservation by involving scientists and conservation planners in the development of a framework for incorporating climate change into site-based conservation planning. WCS is advancing this discussion through the creation of a collaborative Climate Change and Conservation Working Group at the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS), which includes participation from WCS, The Nature Conservancy, Conservation International, the World Wildlife Fund, and several university and government researchers. The working group is charged with: 1) Developing a strategy for how to approach conservation planning under future climate conditions; and 2) Applying that strategy to several regional case studies of wildlife habitat protection in the Intermountain West of North America. This broader NCEAS working group effort will be complemented by regional roundtable discussions such as the May 2007 workshop WCS convened on how climate change may impact conservation priorities in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.

Management of Western Forests: In western ponder­osa pine forests, drought and higher temperatures are heightening catastrophic fire risk that affects forests, human communities, and wildlife.  WCS scientists have been working with USDA Forest Service Scien­tists and others to promote the benefits of forest thin­ning and prescribed fire in reducing fire risk and enhancing wildlife popula­tions in these forests.

Adirondack Case Study of the Consortium for Alan­tic Regional Assessment:  Working with a team of researchers as part of the Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment, the WCS Adirondack program has facilitated a case study examining the impacts of changes in climate on the human and natural commu­nities of the Adirondacks, with a particular focus on the impacts of climate on winter recreation, tourism and water quality.  The case study website gives visitors the opportunity to explore historical and projected cli­mate information, learn about likely impacts to the re­gion from climate change, and consider opportunities to mitigate those impacts.